This module studies ways to model uncertainty for a selection of probabilistic events. and covers part of the CS2 course of the IFoA.
The techniques addressed here can be applied to a number of different situations and will be developed further in more advanced modules.
In this module students will develop an understanding of modelling principles, stochastic processes, the Markov property and the application of Markov processes.
They will construct mathematical models for business problems involving uncertainty, design and calibrate stochastic models, and carry out data analyses.
They will analyse the theory of survival models and multiple state transfer models, including transition intensities and conditional probabilities, and be able to estimate
mortality and hazard rates and carry out graduations of mortality data. Techniques learnt will be implemented also using appropriate computer package.